Report That Will Shed Light On The Future Of The Exports From TIM

Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM) shared with the public the 'Export 2021 Report', which is a new roadmap and new vision for the exporters who makes to wave the Turkish flag in more than 220 countries. The focal theme of the report which will benefit the Turkish economy and exports ecosystem as 'Change in the Global Supply Chain', has been set.

In the report with four main headings, which will shed light on tomorrow of exports; in the future which sectors' star will shine in exports and annual export projections also took part. According to the predictions in the report, the Automotive Industry, which is expected to export 69.9 billion dollars in 2035, will be in the first place, Chemicals and Products will be in the second place with 42.2 billion dollars, and the ready-to-wear and apparel industry will be in the third place with 24 billion dollars. Indicated that the sector with the highest export growth in 2035 will be the Defense and Aerospace Industry with 425 percent in the report. It took part also the prediction that this sector will be followed by Aquaculture and Animal Products with 297 percent increase, Machinery, and Components with 179 percent increase, Carpet with 164 percent increase, and Jewelry sector with 156 percent increase in the report. TİM, which has implemented its projects one by one for the goal of 'Türkiye Giving a Foreign Trade Surplus', gave the good news will be put into operation that a logistic portal which will increase the export volume bringing the exporter together the world with a single click, in the report.

TİM Chairman İsmail Gülle, “Our exports in the last 6 months exceeded 100 billion dollars. We expect that our exports will increase with great momentum in the next 15 years. Since taking office, we have exceeded annual export targets too much every time. We continue to produce and export more for our country. As TİM, we have completed our preparations to bring a national solution to the global problem in the logistic. Very soon, we will implement our Turkish Logistics Portal which will be the gateway of our exporters to the world. With the Turkish Logistics Portal, we will gain significant advantages in logistics while increasing our export volume. The portal will serve as a bridge between logistics companies and our exporters. Our products will now reach all corners of the world faster, cheaper, and safer.” he said.

Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM), the only umbrella organization of 100,000 exporters with 61 Exporters Association and 27 sectors, continues its works at full speed to reach the export target and strengthen the 'Made in Türkiye' brand. In this context, TİM shared with the public the 'Export 2021 Report', a new roadmap and new vision for the exporter. The report, which contains export expectations and predictions with details, published for the third time this year, is a guide to the exporter, especially after the pandemic.

The focal theme in the report is 'Change in Global Supply Chain'

The major focal theme was determined as 'Change in the Global Supply Chain' in the report with four main headings whose contents were shared by TİM Chairman İsmail Gülle. The report contains 'Global Economy and Turkish Economy: 2020 Performance and 2021 Expectations', 'Medium-and-Long Term Trends in Global Trade: Opportunities and Risks for Türkiye', 'Focus: Transformation Process in Global Supply Chains' and 'TİM 2021 Agenda'. TİM Chairman İsmail Gülle attended the press launch of the report, as well as TİM Board Members and Union Presidents. Contributing to the report, Prof. Dr. Emre Alkin, Dr. Can Fuat Gürlesel, and Prof. Dr. Çağrı Erhan also made presentations at the launch.

The portal to increase exports with one button is coming

At the launch, it was also announced that a project that will increase the export volume will be implemented. Exporters will both export more and gain significant advantages in logistics thanks to the portal to be opened to the world.

“We must be prepared for any scenario”

Noting that they have carried out studies that will shed light on the future of exports, TİM Chairman İsmail Gülle said, “Our Export 2021 Report is an important part of this vision. To prepare for tomorrow, we must see the future from today and must be prepared for any scenario. We have left behind a difficult year full of firsts both in our export family and in the world. 2020 went down in history as a year in which directly affects the economy, trade, and doing business styles. The most serious recession happened in the economy since the Second World War. However, our country became one of the two countries among the G-20 countries that closed such a difficult year with economic growth. Despite all the difficulties, we never stopped production and making exports. While we have broken export records on an annual basis in many sectors, especially in April and May, we have eliminated the negative effects of the contraction we experienced due to the cessation of trade all over the world by the end of the year. We realized the highest monthly exports of all time in December. This year, we share the third of our report, which has become a traditional structure, our new vision, our new roadmap.”

“Our country stands out as a reliable supplier”

Noting that because of the problems in supply chains last year, importing countries experienced the negatives of dependence on a single source in supply, Gülle said, “The theme of this year's report was the 'Transformation Process in the Global Supply Chain', which accelerated with the pandemic. The world is aware that it can no longer be dependent on products from a single region, a single factory. At the moment of peaks of the supply crisis, our country emerged as an alternative reliable supplier. In our report, we included the efforts we made to guide our exporter in terms of an accurate understanding of this change. Our report consists of four main headings; 'Global Economy and Türkiye's 2020 Performance and 2021 Expectations', 'Medium-and-Long Term Trends in Global Trade', 'Transformation Process in Global Supply Chains', and '2021 Agenda of our TİM Parliament.”

“The report will be a compass to our exporter”

Gülle continued: “Our main goal in publishing the report, which will be a compass for our export family; to ensure that our exporter walks confidently into the future without breaking away from yesterday and today at a time when change and transformation in world trade are so fast... We are walking to higher export targets every day and raising the bar on records. We must make these achievements sustainable, read the developments correctly, and evaluate the opportunities that occur. With our sectoral and target market-based, medium-and-long term projections included in our report, we aim to enable exporters to move towards high potential markets in their sectors. In our report, we analyzed Türkiye's situation in the transformation process in global supply chains. Our country is among the countries that can benefit the most from the change in global procurement structures.

"We expect that our exports will increase with great momentum in the next 15 years"

Underlining that they also include global trade and economic projections for 2025-2030 and 2035 in the report, Gülle said: “We expect that our exports will increase with great momentum in the next 15 years. The biggest expectation from our exporters is that they mislead even our existing projections. When those days come, in 2030, in 2035, I want to meet with you and say, 'Our exporters have performed so well that the numbers we predicted in 2021 have remained low'. We are working continuously to form this sentence and to rise above the projections.

“Our goals are reasonable; our dreams are limitless.”

“Every month, 1500 of our companies join the export family. Our exports in the last 6 months exceeded 100 billion dollars. Since taking office, we have exceeded our annual export targets every time. We continue to produce, promote and export more for this country, and we will! Because we have a great vision. In Türkiye, which is rising with exports, industrialists, producers, and citizens will rise. We are moving step by step towards our goal of “Türkiye Giving a Foreign Trade Surplus”. Our goals are reasonable, our dreams are unlimited...”

Quick solution with Türkiye Logistics Portal

Gülle, who also gave the good news of the logistics portal that will provide great convenience to the exporter at the launch of the report, “As TİM, we carefully follow the problems experienced globally in logistics. We have completed our preparations to bring a national solution to this global problem. Very soon we will launch our Logistics Portal in Türkiye. We will make this portal the gateway of our exporters to the world. With the Turkish Logistics Portal, we will gain significant advantages in logistics while increasing our export volume. The portal will serve as a bridge between logistics companies and our exporters. Our products will now reach all corners of the world faster, cheaper and safer. In the coming days, we will share the details of our Turkish Logistics Portal with you. You can contribute to the development of the platform by participating in the survey we have prepared at www.türkiyelojistikportalı.com.” he said.

SOME DETAILS FROM THE REPORT

In the report prepared based on Türkiye's combined annual growth rate (CAGR) for the period 2010-2019, some predictions about our country are as follows:

*Türkiye will be the 30th largest exporter country in 2021; It will rise to 29th place in 2030 and 28th place in 2035. With the increase in export performance, the foreign trade deficit will be reduced.

*At the point of global demand, the sectors expected to rank at the top three in 2025-2035 are Chemical Substances and Products, Electrical Electronics and Automotive Industry, respectively.

*According to the current export growth trend; The most exports will be in the Automotive Industry sector with 38.8 billion dollars in 2025, 52.1 billion dollars in 2030, and 69.9 billion dollars in 2035.

*Exports in the Chemical Substances and Products sector, which is expected to rank second in 2035; It will be 25.2 billion dollars in 2025, 32.6 billion dollars in 2030, and 42.2 billion dollars in 2035.

*These two sectors will be followed by the Apparel and Apparel sector, which is expected to export 19.4 billion dollars in 2025, 21.6 billion dollars in 2030, and 24 billion dollars in 2035.

Defense and Aerospace Industries to make a leap

*In 2035, the sector with the highest export growth is Defense and Aerospace Industry with 425 percent... This sector will be followed by Aquaculture and Animal Products with a 297 percent increase, Machinery and Components with a 179 percent increase, Carpet with a 164 percent increase, and Jewelry sector with a 156 percent increase.

*The top ten sectors in global demand will be the same in both 2025 and 2035. The Textile and Raw Materials sector, which will rank 9th in 2025, will fall to 12th place in 2035.

*Furniture, Paper, and Forest Products sector, which will be ranked 11th in 2025, will rise to tenth place in 2035.

*The steel industry will fall from fourth place in 2025 to sixth place in 2035. The Electrical Electronics sector will also fall from fifth place in 2025 to eighth place in 2035.

*The Machinery and Components sector, which ranked fourth in 2025, will be replaced by the Jewelry sector in 2035. Likewise, cereals, pulses, oilseeds and products and mining products sectors will change their places.

*Another relocation; It will be seen between Furniture, Paper and Forest Products and Defense and Aerospace Industries sectors.

Global Export Projection

*Exports according to growth trend; global exports are projected to be $29.2 trillion in 2030 and $37.66 trillion in 2035.

*China's global exports, which are expected to be $5.03 trillion in 2030, are expected to increase to $7.42 trillion in 2035 and top the rankings as the largest exporter country.

*The United States is expected to export $2.5 trillion in 2030 as the second-largest exporting country, while its exports are projected to increase to $3.2 trillion in 2035. In addition to showing that the US foreign trade deficit will increase further, this also stands out as a development that could lead to the start of new trade wars.

*It is anticipated that Germany, which is the third most exporting country today, will retain its third place in 2025 and 2030 and will be replaced by Vietnam in 2035.

Vietnam can pass Germany

*Germany's exports are projected to be $1.97 trillion in 2030 and 2.3 trillion in 2035. Vietnam, which is expected to surpass Germany in the export rankings in 2035, is expected to export $493.2 billion in 2025, $1.07 trillion in 2030, and $2.34 trillion in 2035.

Change in Global Procurement Structures and Positions of Exporting Countries

Change in global procurement structures has different effects for different sectors. In this context, it is foreseen that the opportunities of countries with high competitiveness in the field of production and exports in sectors will be higher. Many potential countries can benefit from the change in global procurement structures. However, countries will focus on highly competitive sectors. Within this framework, the countries that can benefit from the change in global procurement structures are grouped into three groups. In the first group, some countries produce manufacturing industries with a high concentration of technology and innovation.  Türkiye is part of this group. The sectors within this group are medium high-tech density sectors such as automotive, machinery, and equipment, electrical equipment. The countries in the third group are those that produce, and export mainly based on low production costs.

Change in Global Procurement Structures and Türkiye's Potential

Türkiye is among the countries that can benefit the most from the change in global procurement structures. Supply changes are expected to be high in many sectors where Türkiye has the infrastructure and competitive advantages in production and exports. Türkiye is an important manufacturer in the ready-to-wear, footwear, and leather sectors, which have very high potential in the change of global supply chains and has high competitiveness. Türkiye is an important manufacturer in the textile and furniture sectors, which has high potential in the change of global supply chains. In these areas, Türkiye has high competitiveness. The ship and yacht sector also has an important production infrastructure. Türkiye is an important manufacturer in the electrical equipment, rubber and plastics, and metal goods industries which have medium potential in the change of global supply chains. Türkiye has high competitiveness in these areas. It is also developing rapidly in the field of the aerospace industry. Türkiye is an important manufacturer in machinery and equipment, automotive and glass, ceramics, and cement industries which have low potential in the change of global supply chains. In these areas, Türkiye has high competitiveness. Türkiye is an alternative supplier in agricultural products but stands out with its self-sufficiency. Refined petroleum products production infrastructure is also strengthening. Türkiye is also an important producer in the food and beverages, wood and forest products, and chemicals industries from sectors with very low potential in the change of global supply chains and is highly competitive in many products.

Türkiye is the most important potential country for Europe in supply

Türkiye's strengths in the transformation process in the global supply chain; to have an advanced sub-industry with product and sector diversity in industrial production. Flexible and fast production structure, high product standards, and compliance with the EU having strong logistics companies and services, high port, and transportation capacity (land-sea-iron-airlines), and advanced export financing opportunities. Opportunities of Türkiye in the transformation process in the global supply chain; Its prominence as a potential country within the scope of the supply security trend, the advantage of proximity to the European market in the close supply trend developing within the scope of emissions restrictions, being the strongest potential supplier for Europe in the trend of regionalization, the tax advantage provided by the customs union for the EU market and the fact that it is the most important potential country for Europe in close supply in the face of high freight prices.

Türkiye's strengths

In the report, Türkiye's strengths lined that product and sector diversity in industrial production, advanced sub-industry, flexible and fast production structure, compliance with the EU in product standards, strong logistics services, high port, and transportation capacity, (land, sea, iron, and air routes), advanced export financing opportunities.

Opportunities for Türkiye

The potential country within the scope of the supply security trend; the advantage of proximity within the close supply trend developing within the scope of emissions restrictions; the strongest potential supplier for Europe within the propensity for regionalization; the tax advantage provided with the Customs Union for the EU market; and the most important potential for Europe in close supply in the face of high freight prices. The possible risks and opportunities arising from the global agenda that Türkiye will face in 2021 may be useful in determining the roadmap of the business and political world.

Opportunities for Türkiye stemming from the global agenda can be listed as follows:

Turkish-American relations, which mean more than strong trade partnerships, can be conducted through bilateral relations between leaders in the Trump era, while Biden's election can again put an institutional ground against all vulnerabilities. Türkiye has signaled a white page with the Biden administration. If it is found minimum common points in the problem areas such as YPG-PYD terrorism and S-400 in Syria, the course of Turkish-American relations, Türkiye's perception in the eyes of foreign investors, and the value of the Turkish Lira can also create significant opportunities.

Which came into force on 1 January 2021, a day after the end of the Brexit process, the Free Trade Agreement, which was signed between Türkiye and the UK, which is the second-largest export market of Türkiye, be an opportunity for Turkish exporter. This is also a development that could pave the way for Türkiye's different trade alliances.

Gains in Turkish Foreign Policy create new opportunities in foreign trade

During the pandemic period, all societies became more integrated with digital technology possibilities. There were a mental maturity and international awareness. Therefore, it was seen even more clearly in this process that non-democratic units are not sustainable. The existence of a multiparty order since 1946 and a NATO member democratic order since 1952 will make Türkiye an even more important attraction for countries in the region. The gains achieved in Turkish Foreign Policy create new opportunities in foreign trade. Türkiye actively supported Azerbaijan in the Azerbaijan-Armenia war. As a result of the conflict, Armenia withdrew from the occupied territories. This situation can create new opportunities with Türkiye's balanced foreign policy on the east-west axis. Similarly, Türkiye appears to have made a significant impact with its signing of an UN-recognised maritime treaty with Libya. Libya could also become an important opportunity for Turkish exporters in the coming period.

It will open the door to new opportunities for Türkiye

Becoming as a geographical and cultural central role in the BeltWay Initiative, which was created by China against the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership, as well as influence on a wide area thanks to its soft power and historical depth, will increase Türkiye's weight in this project. Financing and trade opportunities within the scope of the initiative should be followed with precision. After Türkiye declared 2005 the Year of Africa, it implemented a stable foreign policy towards the region. The African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement, which came into force on January 1, 2021, contains the topics that can accelerate Türkiye's stable relations with the continent on a commercial scale. Strengthening relations in countries such as Somalia, Tunisia, Nigeria, and Niger will open the door to new multidimensional opportunities for Türkiye on the African continent.

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